Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Weather Update as of 5pm - 31 May (2 LPA's spotted!)

We're keeping an eye on two (2) Low Pressure Areas East and West of the Philippines.

The first LPA has been showing signs of development. It is located some 465 km WNW of Laoag, Ilocos Norte or about 430 km SE of Hongkong.

The second LPA is still very weak but the sea surface temperature is favorable for development combined with low vertical wind shear in the area. It is about 1,400 km east of Mindanao or 520 km ENE of Koror, Palau.

We'll keep you posted for any signs of development. Thank you.


•••

SATELLITE IMAGE

Saturday, May 28, 2011

TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 28 May @ 4:30pm (Final Advisory)

As of 4:30 this afternoon, Typhoon CHEDENG/SONGDA continued to move northeast and is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Forecast models show that this system is no longer a threat to the Philippines. SONGDA is moving NNE at 35 kph in the general direction of Okinawa, Japan. Threat to Okinawa, the Ryukyus and Southern Kyushu remains. SONGDA rapidly lost its strength now with wind gusts dropping to 195 kph. It is about 610 km NE of Basco, Batanes or 365 km East of Taipei, Taiwan or almost in the vicinity of the North Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). SONGDA's rainbands continue to leave the Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands and is affecting Taiwan. It shall approach in a few hours to the Okinawa Islands of Japan.

At 2am – 29 May, it shall be 210 km NE of Okinawa, Japan (outside the PAR) with wind gusts dropping to 155 kph.

On 29 May at 2pm, SONGDA is forecast to be 260 km SSE of Hiroshima, Japan. Wind gusts drops further to 130 kph.


***

1-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

ALL STORM SIGNALS NOW LOWERED:


***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

SONGDA continues to pick up speed while gliding several hundred kilometers to the East of Taiwan. Deteriorating weather conditions shall prevail today over Taiwan. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the shorelines of Taiwan becoming apparent over Okinawa and The Ryukyus. Okinawa, The Ryukyus and Southern Kyushu shall also experience stormy weather (29 or 30 May) as SONGDA heads to the northeast over these Japanese Islands. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

SONGDA shall also glide a few hundred kilometers north of Okinawa and Kadena Base and into Southern Kyushu. Once north of Okinawa, SONGDA shall encounter much cooler waters and rapid weakening is expected as the system continues to accelerate turning further to the Northeast. SONGDA is forecast to dissipate in the North Western Pacific Ocean by 01 June.

Forecast models generated different results in the extended forecasts (30 and 31 May) with some models bringing SONGDA over Japan while other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan and into the cooler portions of the North Western Pacific Ocean. Few other models even brought the system further north into the Sea of Japan. These inconsistencies are normal in a recurvature scenario.

Gradual weakening of sea waves is expected over Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Island as the system moves away. The rest of the country shall experience improved weather condition as the Southwest Moonsoon weakens with some passing rain showers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon. The intertropical convergence zone shall continue to affect the archipelago as normal weather resumes.

P.S.
This will be the FINAL Advisory on this Tropical Disturbance. A new advisory will be issued once a new tropical disturbance becomes a threat to our country. Mabalos po.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE

(N/A)



***

TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 28 May @ 10am

As of 10 this morning, Typhoon CHEDENG has accelerated further northeastward now moving at 30 kph. Threat to Okinawa and the Ryukyus and Southern Kyushu remains. Animated infrared satellite imagery revealed a weakening 10 km diameter eye. High Vertical Wind Shear has started to weakened the system now with wind gusts dropping to 240 kph. It is about 375 km ENE of Basco, Batanes or 180 km south of the North Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and some 300 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan. CHEDENG's rainbands are beginning to leave the Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands and is now over Eastern Taiwan and to approach in a few hours to the Okinawa Islands of Japan.

Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan and Central Visayas are still affected by the weak Southwest Moonsoon. The system shall continue to approach the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and exit today.

At 8pm – 28 May, it shall be 785 km NE of Basco, Batanes (outside the PAR) or 140 km West of Okinawa, Japan with wind gusts dropping to 205 kph.

On 29 May at 8am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 1,055 km SW of Tokyo, Japan. Wind gusts drops further to 165 kph.


***

1-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING


STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Batanes Group of Islands

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating North Eastward now gliding several hundred kilometers to the East of Taiwan. Deteriorating weather conditions shall prevail today over Taiwan and into Okinawa and Southern Kyushu as CHEDENG heads to the northeast over these Japanese Islands. CHEDENG shall also glide a few hundred kilometers north of Okinawa and Kadena Base and into Southern Kyushu. Rapid weakening is expected as the system continues to accelerate and turn to the NE. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the shorelines of Taiwan becoming apparent over the Okinawa.

Gradual weakening of sea waves is expected over Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Island as the system moves away. Expect rains in Luzon, Central Visayas, including Palawan and Metro Manila that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon.

Cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country early this afternoon. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It shall recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime tonight and shall move northeast towards Southern Kyushu in the early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

The rest of the country shall experience improved weather condition as the Southwest Moonsoon weakens with some passing rain showers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon.

Forecast models generated different results in the extended forecasts (30 and 31 May) with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan and into the cooler portions of the North Western Pacific Ocean. Few other models even brought the system further north into the Sea of Japan. These inconsistencies are normal in a recurvature scenario.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 28 May @ 5am

TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 28 May @ 5:30am

As of 5:30 this morning, Typhoon CHEDENG has started tracking northeastward as it continues to accelerate. Threat to Okinawa and the Ryukyus remains. Animated infrared satellite imagery revealed a weakening 22 km diameter symmetric eye. High Vertical Wind Shear has started to weakened the system now with wind gusts dropping to 260 kph. It is about 205 km ENE of Basco, Batanes or 350 km south of the North Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). CHEDENG's huge rainbands are still affecting the Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands and is now over Eastern Taiwan including several Okinawa Islands of Japan.

Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan and Central Visayas are still affected by the weak Southwest Moonsoon. The system shall continue to approach the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and exit today.

At 2pm – 28 May, it shall be 600 km NE of Basco, Batanes or 350 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan and about 35 km south of the Philippine Area of Responsibility with wind gusts dropping to 240 kph.

On 29 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 200 km NE of Okinawa, Japan (outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility). Wind gusts drops further to 205 kph.


***

2-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Batanes Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating North to North Eastward into the Northern Philippine Sea or just NE of the Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Rapid weakening is expected as the system continues to accelerate and turn to the NE. CHEDENG is still churning just hundreds of kilometers away from Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Stormy weather today in these areas. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned islands becoming apparent over the Luzon Ridge. Expect rains in Luzon (becoming very stormy in the Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands), Central Visayas, including Palawan and Metro Manila that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon.

Cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country sometime today or tonight. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It shall recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime during the night of 28 May and shall move northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands in the early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

The rest of the country shall experience improved weather condition as the Southwest Moonsoon weakens with some passing rain showers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon.

Forecast models generated different results in the extended forecasts (30 and 31 May) with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan and into the cooler portions of the North Western Pacific Ocean. Few other models even brought the system further north into the Sea of Japan. These inconsistencies are normal in a recurvature scenario.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 28 May @ 5am

Friday, May 27, 2011

TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 27 May @ 10pm

As of 10pm tonight, CHEDENG loses Super Typhoon strength rapidly as wind gusts dropped to 275 kph. The system is still moving NNW at 20 kph. Threat to Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan remains. The system has initially weakened sooner than previously expected. Typhoon CHEDENG is about 110 km ENE of Basco, Batanes. CHEDENG is expected to lose strength further in the next hours while moving switfly along the Philippine Sea just NE of the Batanes Group of Islands and SE of Taiwan. CHEDENG's huge rainbands are affecting Isabela, Cagayan, the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands and the rest of Northern and Central Luzon. The system's northwestern rainbands is now reaching Eastern Taiwan. Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan, Visayas and Western Mindanao are still affected by the Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Typhoon CHEDENG. The system continues to approach the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and shall begin turning to the north east.

At 8am tomorrow – 28 May, it shall be 380 km NE of Basco, Batanes or 320 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan with wind gusts dropping to 260 kph.

On 28 May at 8pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 100 km WNW of Okinawa, Japan or outside the Northern Philippine Area of Responsibility. Wind gusts drops further to 210 kph.


***

2-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 3:
Batanes Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Babuyan Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Apayao
Cagayan


***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating NNW further into the Northern Philippine Sea or just NE of the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Rapid weakening is expected as the system continues to accelerate turning to the NE later. CHEDENG is still churning just a few hundred kilometers away from Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Stormy weather tonight in these areas. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned islands becoming apparent over the Luzon Ridge. Expect rains in Luzon (becoming very stormy in the extreme Northern portion), Visayas and Western Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon. CHEDENG shall eventually lose strength as it tracks more to the north and eventually turning to the north east.

Cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It is shall to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime during the night of 28 May and shall move northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands at midnight or early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

In the Bicol region, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao, improving weather condition is expected as Super Typhoon CHEDENG continues to move away.

Forecast models are still in excellent agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario in the Philippines for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. However, different results in the extended forecast (30 May) were generated with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast and eventually lose strength.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 27 May @ 11pm

SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 27 May @ 5pm

As of 5pm today, Super Typhoon CHEDENG continued to accelerate northward into the northern Philippine Sea moving at 24 kph with wind gusts still at 295 kph, now threatens Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. The system has initially weakened sooner than previously expected. A 30-km cloud-filled eye has been noted in a recent animated multispectral satellite imagery. CHEDENG is still currently undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle. Super Typhoon CHEDENG is about 160 km ENE of Babuyan Island or 175 km ESE of Basco, Batanes. CHEDENG is expected to lose strength further in the next hours while moving switfly northward along the Philippine Sea just East of the Batanes Group of Islands. CHEDENG's huge rainbands are affecting Isabela, Cagayan, the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands and the rest of Northern and Central Luzon. The system's northwestern rainbands shall begin to brush Eastern Taiwan by tonight or tomorrow. Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan, Visayas and Western Mindanao are affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG. The system is now approaching the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and shall begin turning to the north east.

At 2am tomorrow – 28 May, it shall be 245 km ENE of Basco, Batanes with wind gusts dropping to 270 kph.

On 28 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 665 km NE of Basco, Batanes or 450 km East of Taipei, Taiwan or just over the vicinity of the Northern Philippine Area of Responsibility. Wind gusts drops further to 240 kph.


***

2-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 3:
Batanes Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Babuyan Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Apayao
Cagayan
Isabela

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating northward further into the Northern Philippine Sea or just east of the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. No further intensification is expected and CHEDENG shall accelerate further today while hurling just a few hundred kilometers away from the shorelines of Cagayan, Isabela Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Stormy weather today in these areas including the Ilocos Provinces. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned shorelines becoming apparent over the Luzon Ridge. Expect rains in Luzon (becoming very stormy in the North), Visayas and Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon. CHEDENG shall eventually lose strength as it tracks more to the north and eventually turning to the north east.

The eye wall replacement cycle combined with cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It is shall to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime during the night of 28 May or early morning of 29 May and shall move northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands at midnight or early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

In the Bicol region, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao, improving weather condition is now prevailing as Super Typhoon CHEDENG continues to move away.

Forecast models are still in excellent agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario in the Philippines for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. However, different results in the extended forecasts (30 May and 31 May) were generated with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while the other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May and eventually lose its strength.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 27 May @ 11am

SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 27 May @ 11am

As of 11 this morning, Super Typhoon CHEDENG continues to accelerate further along the northern Philippine Sea moving at 18 kph with wind gusts now down to 295 kph, now threatens Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. The system has initially weakened sooner than previously expected. An elongated eye has been noted in a recent animated infrared satellite and microwave imagery depicting an eye-wall replacement cycle taking in place. Super Typhoon CHEDENG is about 180 km ENE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan. CHEDENG is expected to lose strength further in the next hours while moving switfly northward along the Philippine Sea just ENE of Isabela and Cagayan and towards the East of the Batanes Group of Islands. CHEDENG's huge rainbands are beginning to leave the Bicol region and is affecting Isabela and Cagayan and the rest of Northern Luzon. Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan, Visayas and Western Mindanao are affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG.

At 8pm today – 27 May, it shall be 190 km East of Basco, Batanes with wind gusts dropping to 270 kph.

On 28 May at 8am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 425 km NE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts drops further to 240 kph.


***

3-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Batanes &
Babuyan Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Apayao
Cagayan
Isabela
Quirino
Aurora

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating in the past hours moving Northward further into the Northern Philippine Sea or just east of the Batanes Group of Islands. No further intensification is expected and CHEDENG shall accelerate further today while hurling hundreds of kilometers away from the shorelines of Cagayan/Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands. Stormy weather today in these areas including the Ilocos Provinces. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned shorelines becoming apparent over the Luzon Ridge. Expect rains in Luzon (becoming very stormy in the North), Visayas and Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May. CHEDENG shall further lose strength today. A turn to the northeast in the later part of the extended forecast is expected.

The eye wall replacement cycle combined with cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. Extra tropical transition is also expected by 30 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime during the night of 28 May and shall move northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands at midnight or early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

In the Bicol region, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao, improving weather condition is expected as Super Typhoon CHEDENG continues to move away.

Forecast models are still in excellent agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario in the Philippines for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. However, different results in the extended forecasts (30 May and 31 May) were generated with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while the other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May and eventually lose its strength.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 27 May @ 11am

SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 27 May @ 5:30am

As of 5:30 this morning, Super Typhoon CHEDENG accelerates back as it continue to veer away from the Bicol Region. Now moving at 20 kph with wind gusts at 315 kph. (This wind gust is now likened to Super Typhoon REMING in 2006) An 18-km symmetric eye has been noted in a recent animated infrared satellite and microwave imagery. Super Typhoon CHEDENG is about 190 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela. CHEDENG is expected to maintain its strength for the next few hours while moving NW along the Philippine Sea just east of Isabela and Cagayan and towards the East of the Batanes Group of Islands. CHEDENG's rainbands are beginning to leave the Bicol region and is now affecting Isabela and Cagayan. Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao are affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG.

At 2pm today – 27 May, it shall be 235 km SE of Basco, Batanes with wind gusts still at 315 kph.

On 28 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 255 km ENE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts drops to 275 kph.


***

3-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions


***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Batanes Group

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Cagayan
Calayan Group
Babuyan Group
Isabela
Quirino
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

The system temporarily slowed down during the past hours last night but has now resumed acceleration moving NNW towards the Northern Philippine Sea. No further intensification is expected and CHEDENG shall accelerate further today while hurling hundreds of kilometers away from the shorelines of Cagayan/Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned shorelines. A northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast is expected.

Forecast models are still in very good agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG but has different outputs in the extended forecasts (30 May and 31 May) with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while the other models opted an open water scenario. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May and eventually lose its strength. Expect rains in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

Beginning 28 May, low ocean heat content and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. Extra tropical transition is also expected by 30 May. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May or early morning of 29 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system.

In the Bicol region, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao, improving weather condition is expected as Super Typhoon CHEDENG continues to move away.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 27 May @ 5am

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Weather Update: SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 11pm

As of 11pm tonight, Super Typhoon CHEDENG slowed down to 15 kph but intensified further while moving away from the Bicol Region. A 30-km concentric eye wall has been depicted in a recent satellite and microwave imagery. Super Typhoon CHEDENG is about 380 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes with wind gusts of up to 315 kph! (This wind gust is now likened to Super Typhoon REMING in 2006) CHEDENG is expected to maintain its strength for the next few hours while moving NW along the Philippine Sea just east of Isabela and Cagayan. CHEDENG's rainbands continue to brush Bicol, Quezon Province and is now reaching Eastern Rizal, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands. Metro Manila, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao are affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG.

At 8am tomorrow – 27 May, it shall be 220 km ESE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan with wind gusts still at 315 kph.

On 27 May at 8pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 220 km ENE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts drops to 305 kph.


***

4-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

***
AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Group
Babuyan Group
Isabela
Quirino
Aurora
Quezon Prov.
Polillo Is.
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Albay

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system temporarily slowed down during the past several hours tonight but it is expected to resume acceleration moving NNW towards the Northern Philippine Sea. No further intensification is expected and CHEDENG shall accelerate further sometime in the morning of 27 May while hurling hundreds of kilometers away from the shorelines of Cagayan/Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned shorelines. A northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast is expected.

Forecast models are still in good agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May. Expect rains in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

Beginning 28 May, low ocean heat content shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 26 May @ 10pm

Weather Update: SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 5pm

As of 5pm this afternoon, CHEDENG reached Super Typhoon strength and accelereted to 24 kph, moving away from the Bicol Region. Latest satellite photos now reveal a 31-km in diameter symmetrical eye. Typhoon CHEDENG is about 335 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes with wind gusts of up to 295 kph! CHEDENG is expected to intensify further while roaring NW along the Philippine Sea just east of Isabela and Cagayan. CHEDENG's rainbands continue to affect Samar, Northern Leyte, Bicol, Quezon Province and is now reaching Isabela and Southern Cagayan. Central Visayas and Western Mindanao is affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG.

At 2am tomorrow – 27 May, it shall be 450 km NE of Naga City/CWC and 245 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 305 kph.

On 27 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 235 km ESE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts at 305 kph.


***

4-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

***
AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 1: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon provinces, Polilo Island, Isabela and Cagayan

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system started to accelerate as it moves north to north west over the past several hours. Threat to the Bicol Region diminishes as the High Pressure Ridge north of CHEDENG weakens. CHEDENG shall continue to move NW to NNW along the Philippine Sea and intensify and shall accelerate further beginning 27 May while moving to the East of Cagayan/Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands.

Right now, CHEDENG is starting to pick-up speed and move away from Catanduanes. CHEDENG shall remain in the warm open waters and shall continue moving NNW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. It shall maintain Super Typhoon strength (wind gusts at 305 kph) on May 27. A northward movement and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast is expected. CHEDENG shall glide hundreds of kilometers away to the east of the shorelines of Cagayan, Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 May.

Forecast models are still in good agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

Beginning 28 May, low ocean heat content shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 26 May @ 5pm

Weather Update: TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 11am

As of 11am this morning, Typhoon CHEDENG continued moving to the north (NNW) at 16 kph while maintaining strength. Satellite photos now reveal a 28 km symmetrical eye. Typhoon CHEDENG is about 230 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes or 320 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur with wind gusts of up to 260 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further while climbing NW along the Philippine Sea just NE of Catanduanes and ESE of Isabela/Cagayan. CHEDENG's rainbands continue to affect Samar, Leyte, Central Visayas, Bicol and Quezon Province.

At 8pm tonight – 26 May, it shall be 385 km ENE of Naga City/CWC and 335 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 270 kph.

On 27 May at 8am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 380 km SE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts shall intensify further to 275 kph.


***

4-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

***
AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 2: Catanduanes and Camarines Sur

STORM SIGNAL # 1: Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora,
Quezon Provinces including Polillo Is., Camarines Norte, Albay, Sorsogon,Marinduque, Burias and Ticao Is., Masbate, Biliran Is.
and Samar Provinces

***

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system started to turn more to the north (poleward) over the past several hours decreasing its threat to the Bicol Region as the High Pressure Ridge extending in Japan weakens. CHEDENG shall continue to move NW to NNW along the Philippine Sea and intensify and shall accelerate beginning 27 May while lingering to the East of Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands.

Right now, CHEDENG is still a few hundred kilometers to the Northeast of Catanduanes. Deteriorating weather is being experienced in Samar, Leyte, Bicol including Northern Mindanao and becoming widespread in Central Visayas and Quezon Province as the Southwest Moonsoon shall begin to be enhanced by this typhoon. CHEDENG shall remain in the open waters of the Philippines throughout the forecast and shall continue moving NW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. A sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period is expected gliding hundreds of kilometers to the east of Isabela and Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 May or early morning of 28 May.

Forecast models are still in good agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 26 and 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

Beginning 28 May, low ocean heat content shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 or early morning of 29 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 26 May @ 11am

Weather Update: TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 6am

As of 6am this morning, Typhoon CHEDENG started crawling poleward at 11 kph. The center of Typhoon CHEDENG is about 275 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes or 365 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur with intensified wind gusts of up to 260 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further while crawling NW along the Philippine Sea. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands continues to affect Samar, Leyte, Northern Mindanao, Central Visayas and Bicol.

At 2pm today – 26 May, it shall be 240 km ENE of Naga City/CWC and 455 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 270 kph.

On 27 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 295 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela or 500 km SE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts shall intensify further to 275 kph.


***

4-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system started to turn more to the north (poleward) over the past 6 hours decreasing its threat to the Bicol Region as the High Pressure Ridge extending in Japan weakens. CHEDENG shall continue to crawl NW to NNW along the Philippine Sea and intensify. CHEDENG is a few hundred kilometers to the Northeast of Catanduanes. Deteriorating weather is now being experienced in Samar, Leyte, Bicol including Northern Mindanao and becoming widespread in Central Visayas as the Southwest Moonsoon shall begin to be enhanced by this typhoon. CHEDENG shall remain in the open waters of the Philippines throughout the forecast and shall continue moving NW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. A sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period is expected gliding hundreds of kilometers to the east of Isabela and Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 May or early morning of 28 May.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May.

The system is now enhancing the southwest moonsoon while lingering to the NE of the Bicol region. The rainbands of CHEDENG continues to affect Northern Visayas, and Bicol. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 26 and 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG has now intensified into TYPHOON Strength with projected wind gusts of up to 275 km/hr. However, low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 or early morning of 29 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 26 May @ 5am reveals CHEDENG's eye!

Weather Update: TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 12mn

As of 12mn, Typhoon CHEDENG slowed down once again along the east of the Bicol Region moving NW at 9 kph. The center of Typhoon CHEDENG is about 350 km East of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 240 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further while crawling NW along the Philippine Sea. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands continues to affect Samar, Leyte, Northern Mindanao, Central Visayas and Bicol.

At 8am tomorrow – 26 May, it shall be 250 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes or 340 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur and 350 km East of Naga City/CWC. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph. On 26 May at 8pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 360 km NE of Naga City/CWC and 345 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela. Wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

***

4-day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Storm Forecast

27 May(8pm)
245 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall be at 270 kph.

28 May(8pm)
750 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now outside the PAR)
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 210 kph.

29 May(8pm)
645 km SW of Tokyo, Japan
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 130 kph.

30 May(8pm)
545 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 100 kph.

CHEDENG has now intensified into minimal TYPHOON Strength with projected wind gusts of up to 270 km/hr. However, low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system is still slow moving and was even stationary for several hours today before resuming on a NW track. CHEDENG is still a few hundred kilometers to the East of Samar. Its eye is now visible on several satellite images. Deteriorating weather is now being experienced in Samar, Leyte, Bicol including Northern Mindanao and becoming widespread in Central Visayas as the Southwest Moonsoon shall begin to be enhanced by this typhoon. CHEDENG shall remain in the open waters of the Philippines and shall continue moving NW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. A sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period is expected gliding hundreds of kilometers to the east of Isabela (26 or 27 May) and Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 May.

Majority of the forecast models still shows a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 30 May.

The system is now enhancing the southwest moonsoon while lingering to the NE of Visayas and the Bicol region. The rainbands of CHEDENG continues to affect Northern Visayas, and Bicol. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)



SATELLITE IMAGE as of 25 May @ 9am reveals CHEDENG's eye!

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Weather Update: TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 25 May @ 5pm

As of 5pm today, Typhoon CHEDENG rapidly intensified and continues to linger to the east of Luzon and Northern Visayas. Chedeng was quasi-stationary for several hours earlier today before resuming its NW movement at 11 kph closer to Eastern Luzon. The center of Typhoon CHEDENG is about 275 km ESE of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 240 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further moving WNW to NW along the Philippine Sea. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands continues to affect Samar, Leyte, Northern Mindanao, Central Visayas and Bicol.

At 2am tomorrow – 26 May, it shall be 265 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes or 355 km ENE of Iriga City, Camarines Sur and 370 km East of Naga City/CWC. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph. On 26 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 255 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes or 330 km ENE of Naga City/CWC and 410 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela. Wind gusts shall intensify to 270 kph.

***

4-day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Storm Forecast

27 May(2pm)
255 km ENE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan
305 km SE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall be at 270 kph.

28 May(2pm)
580 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 240 kph.

29 May(2pm)
1,480 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now outside the PAR)
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 185 kph.

30 May(2pm)
460 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 120 kph.

CHEDENG has now intensified into minimal TYPHOON Strength with projected wind gusts of up to 270 km/hr. However, low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING



FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system is still slow moving and was even stationary for several hours today before resuming to move on a NW track. CHEDENG is still a few hundred kilometers to the East of Samar. Its eye is now visible on several satellite images. Deteriorating weather is now being experienced in Samar, Leyte including Northern Mindanao and becoming widespread in Central Visayas as the Southwest Moonsoon shall begin to be enhanced by this typhoon. CHEDENG shall remain in the open waters of the Philippines and shall continue moving NW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. A sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period is expected gliding hundreds of kilometers to the east of Isabela (26 or 27 May) and Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 or 28 May.

Majority of the forecast models still shows a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 30 May.

The system shall enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG continues to affect Northern Visayas, and Bicol. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 25 May @ 9am reveals CHEDENG's eye!

Weather Update: TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 25 May @ 11am

As of 11am today, Typhoon CHEDENG continued to intensify but slowed down now moving WNW at 9 kph turtle walking closer to the Visayas and Bicol Region. The center of Typhoon CHEDENG is about 440 km ESE of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 200 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further moving WNW to NW closer to Eastern Luzon. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands is now reaching Samar, Leyte, Northern Mindanao, Central Visayas and Bicol. Deteriorating weather condition shall begin today as the typhoon approaches.

At 8pm tonight – 25 May, it shall be 380 km East of Naga City/CWC or 275 km East of Virac, Catanduanes and 365 km ENE of Iriga City. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 230 kph. On 26 May at 8am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 225 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes or 295 km ENE of Naga City/CWC and 310 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte. Wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

***

4-day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Storm Forecast

27 May(8am)
460 km NE of Daet, Camarines Norte
230 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
355 km SE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall be at 250 kph.

28 May(8am)
370 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 240 kph.

29 May(8am)
1,220 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now outside the PAR)
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 185 kph.

30 May(8am)
270 km SE of Tokyo, Japan
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 130 kph.

CHEDENG has now intensified into minimal TYPHOON Strength with projected wind gusts of up to 250 km/hr. However, low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system slowed down while on a westerly to slight WNW track in the past hours. CHEDENG is still a few hundred kilometers lingering to the East of Samar. Deteriorating weather shall be experienced in Samar, Leyte including and Northern Mindanao becoming widespread in Central Visayas as the Southwest Moonsoon shall begin to be enhanced by this typhoon. CHEDENG shall remain in the open waters of the Philippines and shall continue moving WNW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. A sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period is expected gliding hundreds of kilometers to the east of Isabela (26 or 27 May) and Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 or 28 May.

Majority of the forecast models still shows a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 30 May.

The system shall enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG continues to affect Northern Visayas, and Bicol. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and shall head towards Okinawa and Southern Japan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE as of 25 May @ 9am reveals CHEDENG's eye!

Weather Update: TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 25 May @ 6am

As of 6am today, CHEDENG continued to intensify (now becoming a Typhoon) and moved more to the west at 15 kph getting closer to the Visayas and Bicol Region. The center of Typhoon CHEDENG is about 435 km ESE of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 165 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further moving WNW closer to Eastern Luzon. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands is now reaching Samar, Leyte, Northern Mindanao, Central Visayas and Bicol. Deteriorating weather condition shall begin today as the typhoon approaches.

At 2pm today – 25 May, it shall be 415 km East of Naga City/CWC or 310 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes and 400 km East of Iriga City. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 200 kph. On 26 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 300 km ENE of Naga City/CWC or 205 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes and 320 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte now with increased wind gusts of 230 kph.

***
4-day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Storm Forecast

27 May(2am)
450 km NE of Naga City/CWC
225 km ENE of Divilacan, Isabela
405 km SE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

28 May(2am)
215 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall drop to 240 kph.

On 29 May(2am)
950 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now outside the PAR)
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall decrease to 185 kph.

30 May(2am)
1,900 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now out of the PAR)
310 km SE of Kyoto, Japan
CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken more to 130 kph.

CHEDENG has now intensified into minimal TYPHOON Strength with projected wind gusts of up to 260 km/hr. However, low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR and into the Ryukus. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system showed a more westerly track in the past hours. CHEDENG is now a few hundred kilometers to the East of Samar. Deteriorating weather shall be experienced in Samar, Leyte including and Northern Mindanao becoming widespread in Central Visayas as the Southwest Moonsoon shall begin to be enhanced by this typhoon. CHEDENG shall remain in the open waters of the Philippines and shall continue moving WNW towards Isabela and Cagayan Province. A sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period is expected approaching a hundred few kilometers to the east of Isabela (May 27) and Basco, Batanes sometime on 27 or 28 May. Expect bad weather in these areas beginning 27 May.

Forecast models still shows a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 26 to 29 May.

The system shall enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG continues to affect Northern Visayas, and Bicol. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and shall head towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE as of 25 May @ 5am

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE as of 25 May @ 9am reveals CHEDENG's eye!

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 24 May @ 5pm

At 5pm today, Tropical Storm CHEDENG intensified and lingered WNW at 15 kph still inching its way closer to the Visayas and Bicol Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 630 km ESE of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 140 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify further as it moves WNW closer to Eastern Luzon. CHEDENG's spiraling rainbands is now reaching Samar and Bicol. Deteriorating weather condition shall begin tonight as the storm approaches.

At 2am tomorrow – 25 May, it shall be 600 km ESE of Naga City/CWC or 500 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes. On 25 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 440 km ENE of Naga City/CWC or 320 km ENE of Gigmoto, Catanduanes now with increased wind gusts of 165 kph.

***
26 May(2pm) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
380 km NE of Naga City/CWC
305 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 230 kph.

***
27 May(2pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
240 km ENE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan
180 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

***
On 28 May(2pm), the system is estimated to be
520 km NE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall decrease to 230 kph.

***
Long range forecast on 29 May(2pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
1,375 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now out of the PAR)
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken to 165 kph.

***
CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to minimal TYPHOON Strength during the forecast period with projected wind gusts of up to 250 km/hr. Low ocean heat content in the later part of the forecast shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR and into the Ryukus. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards.

***

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING




FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC and ECMWF, the system shows a sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching close to Basco, Batanes sometime on 27 May or early morning of 28 May, trekking also closely at Santa Ana, Palaui Island and Northern Cagayan Province. Expect stormy weather in these areas beginning 27 May.

Forecast models still shows SONGDA/CHEDENG to remain in open waters moving to the northeast of Northern Visayas, the Bicol Region, Northern Cagayan Province and now heavily affecting the Batanes Group of Islands in the medium range forecast. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 26 to 29 May.

Overall, Landfall is still 50% possible along the northern coast of extreme Northern Luzon and 20% possible along the Bicol region as of this forecast.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG shall affect Northern Visayas, Northern Bicol, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands when this system approaches. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country in the morning of 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and shall head towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TROPICAL STORM CHEDENG(Songda)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE as of 24 May @ 5pm

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 24 May @ 11am

At 11am today, Tropical Storm CHEDENG drifted slowly WNW at 13 kph closer to the Visayas and Bicol Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 720 km ESE of Sorsogon with wind gusts of up to 130 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify as it moves WNW along the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and closer to Eastern Luzon.

At 8pm tonight – 24 May, it shall be 600 km ESE of Sorsogon. On 25 May at 8am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 410 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes/510 km East of Naga City/CWC or 720 km ESE of Manila/Quezon City.

***
26 May(8am) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
260 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
315 km NE of Naga City/CWC
370 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 210 kph.

***
27 May(8am) reveals CHEDENG to be
145 km ENE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan
185 km ESE of Babuyan Island
250 km SE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

***
On 28 May(8am), the system is estimated to be
305 km NE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

***
Long range forecast on 29 May(8am) reveals CHEDENG to be
110 km NE of Kadena Base Okinawa, Japan (now out of the PAR)
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken to 240 kph.

***
CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON or Near Super Typhoon Strength during the forecast period with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr.

***
AREAS Having Public Storm Warning Signal (Click the image to enlarge)



FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC, the system shows a sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching very close to Basco, Batanes sometime on 27 May or early morning of 28 May, trekking also closely at Santa Ana, Palaui Island and Northern Cagayan Province. Expect stormy weather in these areas beginning 27 May.

Forecast models still shows SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. However, ECMWF now shows a more westerly track in the medium range forecast bringing CHEDENG's circulation closer to Northern Visayas and the Bicol region (26 May) and the rest of the eastern section of Luzon including Metro Manila (27 May). ECMWF also shows a direct Cagayan and Batanes Group of Islands landfall on 28 May. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 26 to 29 May.

Overall, Landfall is still 50% possible along the northern coast of extreme Northern Luzon and 30% possible along the Bicol region as of this forecast.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG shall affect Northern Visayas, Northern Bicol, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands when this system approaches. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country in the morning of 29 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and shall head towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a very strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TROPICAL STORM CHEDENG(Songda)

Latest Satellite Image (24 May at 8am)

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 24 May @ 6am

At 6am today, Tropical Storm CHEDENG slowed down and continues to move WNW at 13 kph closer to the Visayas Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 635 km ESE of Dolores, Samar with wind gusts of up to 130 kph. CHEDENG is expected to intensify as it moves WNW along the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.

At 2pm today – 24 May, it shall be 665 km ESE of Sorsogon or 760 km ESE of Naga City/CWC. On 25 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 495 km ESE of Sorsogon or 580 ESE of Naga City/CWC.

***
26 May(2am) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
215 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
235 km ENE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
300 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
520 km ESE of Cabanatuan
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 210 kph.

***
27 May(2am) reveals CHEDENG to be
145 km ENE of Divilacan, Isabela
175 km ESE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

***
On 28 May(2am), the system is estimated to be
85 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

***
Long range forecast on 29 May(2am) reveals CHEDENG to be
130 km East of Taipei, Taiwan (outside the PAR)
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken to 240 kph.

***
CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON or Near Super Typhoon Strength during the forecast period with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr.

***
AREAS Having Public Storm Warning Signal (Click the image to enlarge)

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC, the system still shows a sharp turn to the north and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching very close to Basco, Batanes sometime in the evening of 27 May or early morning of 28 May, trekking also closely at Santa Ana, Palaui Island and Northern Cagayan Province. Expect stormy weather in these areas beginning 27 May.

Forecast models are still in fair agreement with their respective datas showing SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. However, ECMWF now shows a more westerly track in the medium range forecast bringing CHEDENG's circulation closer to Northern Visayas and the Bicol region (26 May) and the rest of the eastern section of Luzon including Metro Manila (27 May). ECMWF also shows a direct Cagayan and Batanes Group of Islands landfall on 28 May. CHEDENG is also expected to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 29 May.

Overall, Landfall is still 50% possible along the northern coast of extreme Northern Luzon and 30% possible along the Bicol region as of this forecast.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG shall affect Northern Visayas, Northern Bicol, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands when this system approaches. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country in the morning of 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and shall head towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a very strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TROPICAL STORM CHEDENG(Songda)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE as of 24 May at 4:32am

Monday, May 23, 2011

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 23 May @ 11pm

At 8pm tonight, Tropical Storm CHEDENG continues to move WNW at 20 kph closer to the Visayas Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 690 km ESE of Dolores, Samar with wind gusts of up to 140 kph. CHEDENG shall continue to intensify and move further WNW along the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.

At 8am tomorrow – 24 May, it shall be 520 km ESE of San Policarpio, Samar. On 24 May at 8pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 520 km East of Sorsogon or 500 ESE of Virac, Catanduanes.

***
25 May(8pm) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
230 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
300 km ENE of Legaspi City
325 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 230 kph.

***
26 May(8pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
165 km East of Ilagan, Isabela
220 km ESE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

***
On 27 May(8pm), the system is estimated to be
20 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

***
Long range forecast on 28 May(8pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
35 km NW of Taketomi, Japan (outside the PAR)
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken to 250 kph.

***
Starting today until 27 May, CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr.

***
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC, the system still shows a sharp northerly turn in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching very close to Basco, Batanes sometime in the evening of 27 May(about 8pm) trekking also closely at Santa Ana, Palaui Island and Northern Cagayan Province. Expect stormy weather in these areas on 27 May.

Forecast models are still in fair agreement with their respective datas showing SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. However, ECMWF now shows a more westerly track in the medium range forecast bringing CHEDENG's circulation closer to Northern Visayas and the Bicol region (26 May at 8am) and the rest of the eastern section of Luzon including Metro Manila (27 May at 8am). ECMWF also shows a direct Cagayan and Batanes Group of Islands landfall on 28 May at 8am.

Overall, Landfall is now 50% possible along the northern coast of extreme Northern Luzon and 30% possible along the Bicol region as of this forecast.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG shall affect Northern Visayas, Northern Bicol, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands when this system approaches. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country at around 10pm of 27 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a very strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TROPICAL STORM CHEDENG(Songda)

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 23 May @ 5pm

At 5pm today, Tropical Storm CHEDENG accelerated and intensified further and is now moving WNW at 19 kph closer to the Visayas Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 815 km East of Borongan, Samar with wind gusts of up to 140 kph. CHEDENG shall continue to intensify and move further WNW along the warm waters of the Philippine Sea. At 2am tomorrow – 24 May, it shall be 645 km East of Dolores, Samar. On 24 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 490 km East of Dolores, Samar.

***
25 May(2pm) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
255 km ENE of Gubat, Sorsogon
260 km ENE of Legaspi City
265 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
425 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 230 kph.

***
26 May(2pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
280 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
200 km NNE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
290 km NNE of Daet, Camarines Norte
295 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

***
On 27 May(2pm), the system is estimated to be
100 km ESE of Babuyan Island
170 km SE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

***
Long range forecast on 28 May(2pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
325 km NE of Basco, Batanes (now outside PAR)
180 km East of Chenggong, Taiwan
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

***
Starting today until 27 May, CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON and even SUPER TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr.

***
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC and ECMWF, the system is still showing a sharp northerly turn in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching closely to the Batanes Group of Islands sometime in the morning or afternoon of 27 May trekking also closely to Santa Ana and Palaui Island in Cagayan Province.

Forecast models are still in fair agreement with their respective datas showing SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. Landfall in any part of the Philippines is still remote as of this forecast. At any rate, we shall be monitoring closely the progress of this weather system for sudden changes throughout the forecast period. It is also noted that the rapid intensification of this system can be attributed to the fact that it is lingering in the open warm waters of the Pacific Ocean.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas and the Bicol region. Expect rains that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.
Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country between 1am and 3am of 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a very strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.


TRACKING MAP OF TROPICAL STORM CHEDENG(Songda)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE as of 23 May (2pm)