PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Storm 08W/MA-ON
as of 12 July 2011 @ 8:41pm Ph Time
08W/MA-ON intensified during the past several hours and is now a Tropical Storm about 1,015 km ENE of Saipan. Winds in the area are estimated at 85 kph and is moving WNW at 7 kph.
FORECAST ANALYSIS:
MA-ON shall move WNW to Westward in the next few days gradually strengthening into a Tropical Storm and Typhoon status in the later part of the forecast. It shall pass very far to the north of Saipan and Guam but somehow closer to the south of Iwo To Island...mostly lingering in open waters of the warm Pacific Ocean between 13 to 17 July 2011. By 17 July 2011, it shall be about 1,570 km ENE of Basco, Batanes. During this time, it should have intensified into a very strong Category 2 Typhoon with peak wind gusts of up to 210 kph!
JTWC Extended Forecast Note:
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER TRACK UNCERTAINTY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA SIMULTANEOUS WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD RE-ORIENTATION.
On the otherhand, Model from ECMWF tracks MA-ON on a westerly direction from 13 to 16 July 2011 and it shall suddenly turn northward towards the Southwestern Japan and northeast into the Sea of Japan between 17 to 21 July 2011.
Meanwhile, LPA 91W is located about 965 km East of Sorsogon and LPA 92W is located 1,145 km East of Ilagan, Isabela. Intertropical Convergence Zone continues to affect the country. Fair to heavy rainy periods associated with lightning and thunderstorms must be expected.
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