PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Storm 08W/MA-ON
as of 13 July 2011 @ 5:22pm Ph Time
Tropical 08W/MA-ON accelerating WNW and continues to intensify...now located about 780 km NE of Saipan. Wind gusts in the area are estimated at 130 kph. The storm is moving towards Southern Japan.
FORECAST ANALYSIS:
MA-ON shall move WNW in the next few days and shall continue to intensify. It shall pass far to the north of Saipan and Guam but very close to the north of Farallon de Pajaros Island (about 10 km) on 14 July. On 15 July, it shall drift to the south of Iwo To Island (about 405 km)...mostly lingering in the open waters and passing in between numerous seamounts of the warm Pacific Ocean between 13 to 18 July 2011. By 18 July 2011, it shall be about 1,300 km ENE of Basco, Batanes. During this time, it should have intensified into a very strong Category 3 Typhoon with peak wind gusts of up to 240 kph!
Please note that landfall in the Philippines is very remote as of this forecast and MA-ON shall glide slightly inside the northeastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, the Southwest Moonsoon shall be pulled by this disturbance once it hovers to the northeasternmost part inside the Philippine Area of Responsibilty. Expect a wet weekend in the Philippines (16 - 17 July 2011)
Meanwhile, LPA 92W is located 1,010 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes. Intertropical Convergence Zone continues to affect the country. Fair to heavy rainy periods associated with lightning and thunderstorms must be expected.
Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today (13 July)
Luzon: RAINY to FAIR
Visayas: FAIR
Mindanao: FAIR
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