PANAHON UPDATE on
Typhoon 08W/MA-ON
as of 14 July 2011 @ 5pm Ph Time
08W/MA-ON has intensified into a Category 2 Typhoon during the past six hours but slowed down to 14 kph moving westward...now located about 545 km North of Saipan or 145 km ESE of Farallon de Pajaros Island and some 105 km east of Maug Islands. A ragged eye has been noted in a recent satellite pass. Wind gusts in the area are estimated at 205 kph. The storm is still moving towards Kyushu in Southern Japan.
FORECAST ANALYSIS:
Typhoon MA-ON shall continue to move West to WNW and shall continue to intensify. It shall pass to the north of Saipan and Guam but very close to the south of Farallon de Pajaros Island (about 20 km) and to the north of Maug Island (30 km) on 14 or 15 July. Expect stormy weather later today until tomorrow along the northern CNMI. On 16 July, it shall pass to the southwest of Iwo To Island (about 415 km)...mostly lingering in the open waters and passing in between numerous seamounts of the warm Pacific Ocean between 14 to 19 July 2011. By 19 July 2011, it shall be about 275 km SE of Kagoshima, Kyushu Japan. During this time, it should have intensified into a very strong Category 3 Typhoon with peak wind gusts of up to 230 kph!
Please note that landfall in the Philippines is very remote as of this forecast and MA-ON shall glide slightly inside the northeastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. However, the Southwest Moonsoon shall be pulled by this disturbance once it hovers to the northeasternmost part inside the Philippine Area of Responsibilty. Expect a wet weekend in the Philippines (16 - 17 July 2011)
Meanwhile, LPA 92W located 885 km East of Virac, Catanduanes is now the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert by JTWC. Winds in the area are estimated at 40 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone continues to affect the country. Fair to heavy rainy periods associated with lightning and thunderstorms must be expected.
Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today (14 July)
Luzon: FAIR to RAINY
Visayas: FAIR to RAINY
Mindanao: FAIR to RAINY
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