SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 27 May @ 5pm

As of 5pm today, Super Typhoon CHEDENG continued to accelerate northward into the northern Philippine Sea moving at 24 kph with wind gusts still at 295 kph, now threatens Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan. The system has initially weakened sooner than previously expected. A 30-km cloud-filled eye has been noted in a recent animated multispectral satellite imagery. CHEDENG is still currently undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle. Super Typhoon CHEDENG is about 160 km ENE of Babuyan Island or 175 km ESE of Basco, Batanes. CHEDENG is expected to lose strength further in the next hours while moving switfly northward along the Philippine Sea just East of the Batanes Group of Islands. CHEDENG's huge rainbands are affecting Isabela, Cagayan, the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands and the rest of Northern and Central Luzon. The system's northwestern rainbands shall begin to brush Eastern Taiwan by tonight or tomorrow. Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan, Visayas and Western Mindanao are affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG. The system is now approaching the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and shall begin turning to the north east.

At 2am tomorrow – 28 May, it shall be 245 km ENE of Basco, Batanes with wind gusts dropping to 270 kph.

On 28 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 665 km NE of Basco, Batanes or 450 km East of Taipei, Taiwan or just over the vicinity of the Northern Philippine Area of Responsibility. Wind gusts drops further to 240 kph.

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2-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

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AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 3:
Batanes Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Babuyan Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Apayao
Cagayan
Isabela

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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating northward further into the Northern Philippine Sea or just east of the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. No further intensification is expected and CHEDENG shall accelerate further today while hurling just a few hundred kilometers away from the shorelines of Cagayan, Isabela Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands. Stormy weather today in these areas including the Ilocos Provinces. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned shorelines becoming apparent over the Luzon Ridge. Expect rains in Luzon (becoming very stormy in the North), Visayas and Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon. CHEDENG shall eventually lose strength as it tracks more to the north and eventually turning to the north east.

The eye wall replacement cycle combined with cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It is shall to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime during the night of 28 May or early morning of 29 May and shall move northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands at midnight or early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

In the Bicol region, the rest of Visayas and Mindanao, improving weather condition is now prevailing as Super Typhoon CHEDENG continues to move away.

Forecast models are still in excellent agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario in the Philippines for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. However, different results in the extended forecasts (30 May and 31 May) were generated with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while the other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May and eventually lose its strength.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 27 May @ 11am