Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 23 May @ 11pm

At 8pm tonight, Tropical Storm CHEDENG continues to move WNW at 20 kph closer to the Visayas Region. The center of CHEDENG is about 690 km ESE of Dolores, Samar with wind gusts of up to 140 kph. CHEDENG shall continue to intensify and move further WNW along the warm waters of the Philippine Sea.

At 8am tomorrow – 24 May, it shall be 520 km ESE of San Policarpio, Samar. On 24 May at 8pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 520 km East of Sorsogon or 500 ESE of Virac, Catanduanes.

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25 May(8pm) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
230 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
300 km ENE of Legaspi City
325 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 230 kph.

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26 May(8pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
165 km East of Ilagan, Isabela
220 km ESE of Tuguegarao, Cagayan
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

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On 27 May(8pm), the system is estimated to be
20 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

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Long range forecast on 28 May(8pm) reveals CHEDENG to be
35 km NW of Taketomi, Japan (outside the PAR)
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall weaken to 250 kph.

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Starting today until 27 May, CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr.

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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC, the system still shows a sharp northerly turn in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching very close to Basco, Batanes sometime in the evening of 27 May(about 8pm) trekking also closely at Santa Ana, Palaui Island and Northern Cagayan Province. Expect stormy weather in these areas on 27 May.

Forecast models are still in fair agreement with their respective datas showing SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. However, ECMWF now shows a more westerly track in the medium range forecast bringing CHEDENG's circulation closer to Northern Visayas and the Bicol region (26 May at 8am) and the rest of the eastern section of Luzon including Metro Manila (27 May at 8am). ECMWF also shows a direct Cagayan and Batanes Group of Islands landfall on 28 May at 8am.

Overall, Landfall is now 50% possible along the northern coast of extreme Northern Luzon and 30% possible along the Bicol region as of this forecast.

The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas, the Bicol region and the rest of Eastern Luzon. The rainbands of CHEDENG shall affect Northern Visayas, Northern Bicol, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands when this system approaches. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

CHEDENG shall be out of the country at around 10pm of 27 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan and towards Okinawa and Western Honshu, Japan. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a very strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TROPICAL STORM CHEDENG(Songda)