TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 28 May @ 10am

As of 10 this morning, Typhoon CHEDENG has accelerated further northeastward now moving at 30 kph. Threat to Okinawa and the Ryukyus and Southern Kyushu remains. Animated infrared satellite imagery revealed a weakening 10 km diameter eye. High Vertical Wind Shear has started to weakened the system now with wind gusts dropping to 240 kph. It is about 375 km ENE of Basco, Batanes or 180 km south of the North Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and some 300 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan. CHEDENG's rainbands are beginning to leave the Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands and is now over Eastern Taiwan and to approach in a few hours to the Okinawa Islands of Japan.

Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan and Central Visayas are still affected by the weak Southwest Moonsoon. The system shall continue to approach the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and exit today.

At 8pm – 28 May, it shall be 785 km NE of Basco, Batanes (outside the PAR) or 140 km West of Okinawa, Japan with wind gusts dropping to 205 kph.

On 29 May at 8am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 1,055 km SW of Tokyo, Japan. Wind gusts drops further to 165 kph.

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1-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

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AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Batanes Group of Islands

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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating North Eastward now gliding several hundred kilometers to the East of Taiwan. Deteriorating weather conditions shall prevail today over Taiwan and into Okinawa and Southern Kyushu as CHEDENG heads to the northeast over these Japanese Islands. CHEDENG shall also glide a few hundred kilometers north of Okinawa and Kadena Base and into Southern Kyushu. Rapid weakening is expected as the system continues to accelerate and turn to the NE. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the shorelines of Taiwan becoming apparent over the Okinawa.

Gradual weakening of sea waves is expected over Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Island as the system moves away. Expect rains in Luzon, Central Visayas, including Palawan and Metro Manila that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon.

Cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country early this afternoon. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It shall recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime tonight and shall move northeast towards Southern Kyushu in the early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

The rest of the country shall experience improved weather condition as the Southwest Moonsoon weakens with some passing rain showers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon.

Forecast models generated different results in the extended forecasts (30 and 31 May) with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan and into the cooler portions of the North Western Pacific Ocean. Few other models even brought the system further north into the Sea of Japan. These inconsistencies are normal in a recurvature scenario.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 28 May @ 5am