TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 28 May @ 5:30am

As of 5:30 this morning, Typhoon CHEDENG has started tracking northeastward as it continues to accelerate. Threat to Okinawa and the Ryukyus remains. Animated infrared satellite imagery revealed a weakening 22 km diameter symmetric eye. High Vertical Wind Shear has started to weakened the system now with wind gusts dropping to 260 kph. It is about 205 km ENE of Basco, Batanes or 350 km south of the North Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). CHEDENG's huge rainbands are still affecting the Batanes, Babuyan and Calayan Group of Islands and is now over Eastern Taiwan including several Okinawa Islands of Japan.

Metro Manila, Bicol, Palawan and Central Visayas are still affected by the weak Southwest Moonsoon. The system shall continue to approach the Northern Philippine Area of Responsiblity and exit today.

At 2pm – 28 May, it shall be 600 km NE of Basco, Batanes or 350 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan and about 35 km south of the Philippine Area of Responsibility with wind gusts dropping to 240 kph.

On 29 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 200 km NE of Okinawa, Japan (outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility). Wind gusts drops further to 205 kph.

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2-Day SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

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AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 2:
Batanes Group of Islands

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Calayan Group of Islands
Babuyan Group of Islands

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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:

CHEDENG has been accelerating North to North Eastward into the Northern Philippine Sea or just NE of the Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Rapid weakening is expected as the system continues to accelerate and turn to the NE. CHEDENG is still churning just hundreds of kilometers away from Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Stormy weather today in these areas. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned islands becoming apparent over the Luzon Ridge. Expect rains in Luzon (becoming very stormy in the Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands), Central Visayas, including Palawan and Metro Manila that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon.

Cooler sea surface temperature and increased vertical wind shear shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. CHEDENG shall be out of the country sometime today or tonight. Extra tropical transition is also expected beginning 30 May. It shall recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan.

Chedeng shall be in the vicinity of Okinawa sometime during the night of 28 May and shall move northeast towards the Ryukyu Islands in the early morning of 29 May. Expect stormy weather in these areas over the weekend.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

The rest of the country shall experience improved weather condition as the Southwest Moonsoon weakens with some passing rain showers and thunderstorms mostly in the afternoon.

Forecast models generated different results in the extended forecasts (30 and 31 May) with some models bringing CHEDENG over Japan while other models favoring an open water scenario just South of Japan and into the cooler portions of the North Western Pacific Ocean. Few other models even brought the system further north into the Sea of Japan. These inconsistencies are normal in a recurvature scenario.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 28 May @ 5am