PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Depression LANDO/97W
as of 01 August 2011 @ 2:31pm Ph Time

LPA 97W west of Luzon has been classified as a Tropical Depression as per PAGASA advisory and was named LANDO. On the otherhand, JTWC continues to classify it as a Low Pressure Area with LOW probability of development. Check out PAGASA's latest advisory on Tropical Depression LANDO

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PANAHON UPDATE on
Typhoon KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
as of 01 August 2011 @ 5:25am Ph Time

Typhoon KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA maintains a very strong Category 4 status. This howler continues to move northward along the East Philippine Sea and is now located to the east of Cagayan. At 2am today, it is about 1,250 km east of Tuguegarao City. The system is moving northward at 14 kph. Wind gusts reaches 275 kph. It is forecast to be 125 km WNW of Okinawa, Japan or over the Eastern China Sea on 05 August.

At 2pm later, KABAYAN shall be 1,230 km ESE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts shall be maintained at 275 kph.

Tomorrow 2pm, the system shall be about 1,215 km ESE of Basco, Batanes with weakened wind gusts of 270 kph.

4-Day SUPER TYPHOON KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
Forecast Positions & Strength

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS
Typhoon KABAYAN shall maintain a very strong Category 4 status and shall continue to move northward to northwest later in the forecast. The system shall gradually weaken to Category 3 once it approaches the East China Sea. There was some slight erosion in the eyewall but convections remain deep. The system shall shift to a northwest movement tomorrow heading towards Okinawa. KABAYAN is forecast to make landfall in Okinawa and Naja Japan on the night of 04 August.

ECMWF continues to show a Chinese landfall in its extended forecast between 07 to 09 August. The system shall move into the East Sea and along the eastern coast of China -- Shanghai and Yancheng. It shall reach the Yellow Sea affecting the areas of Yentai and Weifang and reaching as far as Dalian in Liaoning Province.

KABAYAN shall enhance the southwest moonsoon that shall bring rains into the Philippines.

Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today
Luzon: RAINY
Visayas: RAINY
Mindanao: FAIR

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LPA Alert:
New LPA 98W forms 650 km ENE of Wake Island...very far from the Philippines.

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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA ♦♦♦




♦♦♦ FORECAST MODELS FOCUS: 11W/MUIFA (KABAYAN) ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ WESTERN PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE (approx. 3 hrs.ago) ♦♦♦


Click here for the Latest HI-RES Satellite Image
Click here for the Latest Flash Satellite Video

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC RAIN RATE ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SURFACE WIND ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST PHILIPPINE WATER WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ♦♦♦


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PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Storm KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
as of 30 July 2011 @ 5:42am Ph Time

TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA continues to move along the East Philippine Sea and is now located to the east of Northern Samar. At 2am today, it is about 1,060 km east of ENE of Virac, Catanduanes. The system is moving northward at 14 kph. Wind gusts reaches 130 kph. It is forecast to be in the vicinity of Minamidaito and Kitadaito in the Shimajiri District, Okinawa, Japan on 04 August. KABAYAN now calls for a China landfall by 06 August.

At 2pm later, KABAYAN shall be 1,300 km East of Baler, Aurora. Wind gusts shall intensify to 150 kph.

Tomorrow 2pm, the system shall be about 1,220 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela with intensified wind gusts of 160 kph.

4-Day TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
Forecast Positions & Strength

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS
Tropical Storm KABAYAN shall continue to move northward along the east Philippine Sea and intensify gradually. The high sea surface temperature continues to fuel the storm and it is expected to reach peak wind gusts of 210 kph in the extended forecast. KABAYAN shall intensify into a Category 2 Typhoon by 31 July. The system shall shift to a northwest movement on 01 August heading towards the Southern Ryukyus in Kagoshima, Japan. It is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 04 August. Forecast from ECMWF shows KABAYAN making landfall in Shanghai, China by 06 August.

KABAYAN shall enhance the southwest moonsoon that shall bring rains into Mindanao becoming widespread into Visayas and Luzon as the system tracks northward. Overall, fair to wet weather shall prevail in the country until early next week.

Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today
Luzon: FAIR to RAINY
Visayas: FAIR to RAINY
Mindanao: FAIR to RAINY

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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA ♦♦♦




♦♦♦ FORECAST MODELS FOCUS: 11W/MUIFA (KABAYAN) ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ WESTERN PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE (approx. 3 hrs.ago) ♦♦♦


Click here for the Latest HI-RES Satellite Image
Click here for the Latest Flash Satellite Video

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC RAIN RATE ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SURFACE WIND ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST PHILIPPINE WATER WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ♦♦♦


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PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Storm KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
as of 29 July 2011 @ 6:36am Ph Time

TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA continue to move along the East Philippine Sea and is now located to the east of Northern Samar. At 2am today, it is about 915 km east of Mapanas, Northern Samar. The system is moving WNW at 16 kph. Wind gusts reaches 100 kph.

At 2pm later, KABAYAN shall be 965 km East of Sorsogon City. Wind gusts shall intensify to 120 kph.

Tomorrow 2pm, the system shall be about 895 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes with intensified wind gusts of 130 kph.

4-Day TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
Forecast Positions & Strength

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS
Tropical Storm KABAYAN shall continue to move WNW to NW along the east Philippine Sea and intensify gradually before turning poleward sharply. It shall slow down while tracking northward. KABAYAN shall intensify into a Category 1 Typhoon by 31 July in the general direction towards Southern Japan.

KABAYAN shall enhance the southwest moonsoon that shall bring rains into Mindanao becoming widespread into Visayas and Luzon as the system tracks northward. Overall, fair to wet weather shall prevail in the country until early next week.

Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today
Luzon: FAIR to RAINY
Visayas: FAIR to RAINY
Mindanao: FAIR to RAINY

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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA ♦♦♦




♦♦♦ FORECAST MODELS FOCUS: 11W/MUIFA (KABAYAN) ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF JUANING/10W/NOCK-TEN ♦♦♦




♦♦♦ FORECAST MODELS FOCUS: 10W/NOCK-TEN (JUANING) ♦♦♦


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LPA Alert:
LPA 96W located WNW of Guam.
We'll keep an eye on this disturbance for possible development.

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♦♦♦ WESTERN PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE (approx. 3 hrs.ago) ♦♦♦


Click here for the Latest HI-RES Satellite Image
Click here for the Latest Flash Satellite Video

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC RAIN RATE ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SURFACE WIND ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST PHILIPPINE WATER WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ♦♦♦


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PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Storm KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
as of 28 July 2011 @ 6:35pm Ph Time

TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA stepped into the Philippine Area of Responsiblity this afternoon. At 2pm today, it is about 1,040 km east of Borongan, Samar or just over the vicinity of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The system is moving westward at 29 kph. Wind gusts reaches 90 kph.

At 2am tomorrow, KABAYAN shall be 895 km ENE of Borongan, Samar.

4-Day TROPICAL STORM KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA
Forecast Positions & Strength

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS
Tropical Storm KABAYAN shall continue to move WNW to NW along the east Philippine Sea in the next 36 hours before turning poleward sharply. It shall slow down while tracking northward until 30 July before turning to the northeast. KABAYAN shall intensify into a Category 1 Typhoon by 31 July and is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 01 August. The extended track takes KABAYAN back to a poleward movement by 02 August towards Southern Japan.

KABAYAN shall enhance the southwest moonsoon that shall bring rains into Mindanao becoming widespread into Visayas and Luzon as the system tracks northward. Overall, fair to wet weather shall prevail in the country until early next week.

Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today
Luzon: FAIR becoming RAINY in the western section
Visayas: FAIR to RAINY
Mindanao: FAIR to RAINY

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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF KABAYAN/11W/MUIFA ♦♦♦



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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF JUANING/10W/NOCK-TEN ♦♦♦



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LPA Alert:
LPA 96W located WNW of Guam.
We'll keep an eye on this disturbance for possible development.

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♦♦♦ WESTERN PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE (approx. 3 hrs.ago) ♦♦♦


Click here for the Latest HI-RES Satellite Image
Click here for the Latest Flash Satellite Video

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC RAIN RATE ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SURFACE WIND ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST PHILIPPINE WATER WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ♦♦♦


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PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Storm JUANING/10W/NOCK-TEN
as of 27 July 2011 @ 5:14pm Ph Time

TYPHOON JUANING/10W/NOCK-TEN weakened upon land interaction today and was downgraded back to Tropical Storm strength. The system is now brushing Central Luzon over Nueva Vizcaya and shall move into Benguet and La Union provinces tonight. At 2pm today, it is about 25 km ESE of Kasibu, Nueva Vizcaya or 100 km ESE of Baguio City moving NW at 14 kph. Wind gusts down to 130 kph.

At 2am tomorrow, it shall be over the West Philippine Sea about 140 km WNW of San Fernando, La Union. Wind gusts weakens to 120 kph.

4-Day TROPICAL STORM JUANING/10W/NOCK-TEN
Forecast Positions & Strength

AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

SIGNAL NO. 4 (above 185 kph winds)	SIGNAL NO. 3 (100 to 185 kph winds)	SIGNAL NO. 2 (60 - 100 kph winds)	SIGNAL NO. 1 (from 45 - 60 kph winds)
NONE	NONE	Ilocos Norte Abra Kalinga Isabela Ilocos Sur Mt. Province Ifugao La Union Benguet Nueva Viscaya Quirino	Aurora Apayao Cagayan Pangasinan Nueva Ecija Northern Quezon Zambales Pampanga Tarlac Bulacan Bataan Rizal Metro Manila

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS
Tropical Storm JUANING has just passed over Aurora and is now traversing Nueva Vizcaya passing very close to Kasibu and Bayombong before moving into Benguet just north of Baguio City and finally reaching La Union passing very close to the north of San Fernando City. JUANING shall exit into the West Philippine Sea early in the morning tomorrow (around 2am).

JUANING shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the afternoon of 28 July. It shall continue moving WNW towards Northern Hainan Province by 29 July where it shall regain Typhoon Category prior to landfall and before moving into the Gulf of Tonkin. The extended track takes JUANING into Laos by 01 August where its shall dissipate.

JUANING's small ragged eye has disappeared but its convection remained tight even over Luzon. Thick rainclouds continue to cover Northern, Central and Southwestern Luzon with its outer bands reaching Bicol and Visayas. There has been some thinning in the outerbands that is covering Bicol indicating that an improved weather condition is being experienced in the area. Southwest Moonsoon is being experienced in Mindanao. Coastal waters in Bicol and the rest of Eastern and Western Luzon shall be moderate to rough. Please note that the storm's forward motion could still change due to varying elements.

Quick Outlook in the Philippines Today
Luzon: RAINY becoming STORMY in Central Luzon
Visayas: FAIR to RAINY
Mindanao: FAIR to RAINY
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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF JUANING/10W/NOCK-TEN ♦♦♦




♦♦♦ FORECAST MODELS FOCUS: 10W/NOCK-TEN (JUANING) ♦♦♦


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PANAHON UPDATE on
Tropical Depression 11W
as of 27 July 2011 @ 5:27am Ph Time

Tropical Depression 11W is now about 530 km WSW of Guam with wind gusts of 75 kph. 11W is moving WNW at 22 kph towards the Western Pacific Ocean. Initial forecast shows that the system shall move NW to northward just over the vicinity of the Philippine Area of Responsibility passing thosands of kilometers to the west of Guam. The system shall intensify with wind gusts of 165 kph later in the forecast.

Right now, this disturbance is not a threat to the Philippines.


♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF 11W ♦♦♦



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LPA Alert:
LPA 95W located SE of Guam. We'll keep an eye on this disturbance for possible development.

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♦♦♦ WESTERN PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE (approx. 3 hrs.ago) ♦♦♦


Click here for the Latest HI-RES Satellite Image
Click here for the Latest Flash Satellite Video

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC RAIN RATE ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SURFACE WIND ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST PHILIPPINE WATER WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦


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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ♦♦♦


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