Sunday, May 22, 2011

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) as of 22 May @ 11am

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) as of 22 May @ 11am - Tropical Storm SONGDA continues to intensify as it moves WNW at 9 km/hr. along the western Pacific Ocean northeast of Palau now with gust winds of up to 100 kph. Earlier at 8am today, the center of SONGDA was located at 195 km East of the PAR or 355 km NE of Melekeok, Palau and about 380 km NE of Koror, Palau. SONGDA shall continue to intensify and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between 6PM and 8PM tonight and shall move north of Palau Island and into the Philippine Sea tonight until the early hours of 23 May.

On 23 May, SONGDA/CHEDENG shall be about 920 km East of Borongan, Samar.
On 24 May, it is forecast to be 660 km ENE of Borongan, Samar.


25 May forecast shows SONGDA/CHEDENG to be about

565 km ESE of Sorsogon
595 km ESE of Legaspi City
550 km ESE of Virac
650 km ESE of Naga City/CWC


Long range forecast on 26 May reveals SONGDA to be

270 km ENE of Bagamanoc, Catanduanes
280 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
380 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
400 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
605 km ENE of Manila/Quezon City
545 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela


On 27 May, the system is estimated to be

240 km ENE of Ilagan, Isabela
440 km SE of Basco, Batanes
365 km SE of Babuyan, Island
650 km SE of Manjhou, Taiwan


Starting today until 27 May, SONGDA/CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr. PAGASA shall name this system CHEDENG in their forecast later today or tonight.



Based on this latest forecast from JTWC and ECMWF, the system is still showing a more northerly turn in the later part of the extended forecast period thus making land fall in any part of the Philippines to be very remote. However, between 23 and 25 May, SONGDA is showing a more westerly track bringing it somehow closer to Northern Samar. At any rate, we shall be monitoring closely the progress of this weather system for sudden changes throughout the forecast period. It is also noted that the rapid intensification of this system can be attributed to the fact that it is lingering in the open warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas and the Bicol region. Expect rains that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Stay tuned for more updates.


Next Advisory: 22 May between 4pm and 5pm.

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