Thursday, May 26, 2011

Weather Update: SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 11pm

As of 11pm tonight, Super Typhoon CHEDENG slowed down to 15 kph but intensified further while moving away from the Bicol Region. A 30-km concentric eye wall has been depicted in a recent satellite and microwave imagery. Super Typhoon CHEDENG is about 380 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes with wind gusts of up to 315 kph! (This wind gust is now likened to Super Typhoon REMING in 2006) CHEDENG is expected to maintain its strength for the next few hours while moving NW along the Philippine Sea just east of Isabela and Cagayan. CHEDENG's rainbands continue to brush Bicol, Quezon Province and is now reaching Eastern Rizal, Isabela, Cagayan and the Batanes Group of Islands. Metro Manila, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao are affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG.

At 8am tomorrow – 27 May, it shall be 220 km ESE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan with wind gusts still at 315 kph.

On 27 May at 8pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 220 km ENE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts drops to 305 kph.


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4-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

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AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 1:
Batanes Group
Cagayan
Calayan Group
Babuyan Group
Isabela
Quirino
Aurora
Quezon Prov.
Polillo Is.
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Albay

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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system temporarily slowed down during the past several hours tonight but it is expected to resume acceleration moving NNW towards the Northern Philippine Sea. No further intensification is expected and CHEDENG shall accelerate further sometime in the morning of 27 May while hurling hundreds of kilometers away from the shorelines of Cagayan/Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands. Very strong far-fetched waves are expected to hit the abovementioned shorelines. A northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast is expected.

Forecast models are still in good agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May. Expect rains in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao that could trigger flashfloods. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

Beginning 28 May, low ocean heat content shall weaken the system rapidly as it tracks out of the PAR and into Okinawa, Japan. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)

SATELLITE IMAGE as of 26 May @ 10pm

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