Monday, May 23, 2011

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 23 May @ 5am

At 5am today, Tropical Storm SONGDA (now named CHEDENG locally) is now inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and accelerated during the past 6 hours. Still moving WNW at 15 kph, the center of CHEDENG is about 295 km NNW of Ngajangel, Palau or 1,005 km ESE of Borongan, Samar with wind gusts of up to 130 kph. CHEDENG shall continue to intensify and move further into the Philippine Sea. At 2pm today, it shall be 880 km ESE of Borongan,Samar. On 24 May at 2am, CHEDENG is forecast to be 720 km ESE of San Policarpio, Samar or 890 ESE of Sorsogon and about 875 ESE of Virac, Catanduanes.

25 May(2am) forecast shows CHEDENG to be about
610 km ESE of Sorsogon
640 km ESE of Legaspi City
590 km ESE of Virac
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 210 kph.

26 May(2am) reveals CHEDENG to be
320 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
410 km ENE of Iriga City
420 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
450 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
610 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 240 kph.

On 27 May(2am), the system is estimated to be
280 km East of Ilagan, Isabela
310 km ESE of Baggao, Cagayan
395 km ESE of Babuyan Island
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 250 kph.

Long range forecast on 28 May(2am) reveals CHEDENG to be
200 km ENE of Babuyan Island
155 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
During this time, CHEDENG's wind gusts shall intensify to 260 kph.

Starting today until 28 May, CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON and even SUPER TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr.

Based on this latest forecast from JTWC and ECMWF, the system now shows a sharp northerly turn in the later part of the extended forecast period approaching closely to the Batanes Group of Islands with moderate distance from Cagayan Province. Forecast models are still in fair agreement with their respective datas showing SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. Landfall in any part of the Philippines is still remote as of this forecast. At any rate, we shall be monitoring closely the progress of this weather system for sudden changes throughout the forecast period. It is also noted that the rapid intensification of this system can be attributed to the fact that it is lingering in the open warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. The system is expected to enhance the southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas and the Bicol region. Expect rains that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Stay tuned for more updates.

CHEDENG(Songda) is a very strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

Next Public Advisory: 23 May between 11am and 12nn.



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