Thursday, May 26, 2011

Weather Update: SUPER TYPHOON SONGDA (CHEDENG) as of 26 May @ 5pm

As of 5pm this afternoon, CHEDENG reached Super Typhoon strength and accelereted to 24 kph, moving away from the Bicol Region. Latest satellite photos now reveal a 31-km in diameter symmetrical eye. Typhoon CHEDENG is about 335 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes with wind gusts of up to 295 kph! CHEDENG is expected to intensify further while roaring NW along the Philippine Sea just east of Isabela and Cagayan. CHEDENG's rainbands continue to affect Samar, Northern Leyte, Bicol, Quezon Province and is now reaching Isabela and Southern Cagayan. Central Visayas and Western Mindanao is affected by the strong Southwest Moonsoon currently being enhanced by Super Typhoon CHEDENG.

At 2am tomorrow – 27 May, it shall be 450 km NE of Naga City/CWC and 245 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela. Its wind gusts shall intensify to 305 kph.

On 27 May at 2pm, CHEDENG is forecast to be 235 km ESE of Basco, Batanes. Wind gusts at 305 kph.


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4-Day TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda) Forecast Positions

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AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

STORM SIGNAL # 1: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Albay, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon provinces, Polilo Island, Isabela and Cagayan

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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
The system started to accelerate as it moves north to north west over the past several hours. Threat to the Bicol Region diminishes as the High Pressure Ridge north of CHEDENG weakens. CHEDENG shall continue to move NW to NNW along the Philippine Sea and intensify and shall accelerate further beginning 27 May while moving to the East of Cagayan/Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands.

Right now, CHEDENG is starting to pick-up speed and move away from Catanduanes. CHEDENG shall remain in the warm open waters and shall continue moving NNW towards the northern portion of the Philippine Sea. It shall maintain Super Typhoon strength (wind gusts at 305 kph) on May 27. A northward movement and a northeastern recurvature in the later part of the extended forecast is expected. CHEDENG shall glide hundreds of kilometers away to the east of the shorelines of Cagayan, Isabela and the Batanes Group of Islands sometime on 27 May.

Forecast models are still in good agreement with a NO LANDFALL Scenario for Typhoon SONGDA/CHEDENG. CHEDENG shall continue to accelerate later in the forecast between 27 to 31 May. Expect rains in LUZON and VISAYAS that could trigger flashfloods and winds. Strong to gale force winds (55 kph or higher) are expected to affect the Eastern seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao becoming stronger in extreme Northern Luzon beginning 27 May.

Expect rough to very rough sea conditions along these areas. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE LARGER SEA VESSELS ARE ALERTED AGAINST BIG WAVES.

Beginning 28 May, low ocean heat content shall weaken the system as it tracks out of the PAR. Extra tropical transition is also expected afterwards. CHEDENG shall be out of the country by 28 May. It is expected to recurve to the northeast missing Taiwan as an extra tropical storm system. Stay tuned for more updates.

P.S.
CHEDENG(Songda) is a strong and dangerous storm. If this hits land, it would be a deadly catastrophe. The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and precautionary measures.

TRACKING MAP OF SUPER TYPHOON CHEDENG(Songda)


SATELLITE IMAGE as of 26 May @ 5pm

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