Sunday, May 22, 2011

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) as of 22 May @ 6am

Weather Update: TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (Pre-CHEDENG) as of 22 May @ 6am - Tropical Storm 04W, now with international name SONGDA intensifies and regains Tropical Storm status as it tracked NW at 9 km/hr. closer to the PAR with wind gusts of up to 85 km/hr. Later at 2pm, it is forecast to be about 85 km East of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). SONGDA shall start to crawl slowly to the north of PALAU Island starting tonight until the wee hours tomorrow, 23 May. This system shall enter the PAR in the afternoon or early evening today and begin to further intensify. On 23 May, it shall be about 990 km East of Borongan, Samar. On 24 May, it is forecast to be 800 km ESE of Catarman, Samar.
25 May forecast shows SONGDA/Pre-CHEDENG to be about
650 km ESE of Naga City/CWC
595 km ESE of Legaspi City
545 km ESE of Virac
630 km ESE of Iriga City

Long range forecast on 26 May reveals SONGDA to be
330 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
425 km ENE of Naga City/CWC Camarines Sur
445 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
310 km ENE of Bagamanoc, Catanduanes
360 km ENE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
370 km ENE of Garchitorena, Camarines Sur
650 km East of Manila/Quezon City
545 km East of Polilio Island
575 km ESE of Ilagan, Isabela

On 27 May, the system is estimated to be
305 km East of Ilagan, Isabela
365 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
475 km SE of Basco, Batanes

Between 23 and 27 May, the system is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr. PAGASA shall name this system CHEDENG locally.
Based on this latest forecast from JTWC and ECMWF, the system is now forecast to turn more to the north in the later part of the extended forecast making land fall in any part of the Philippines to be very remote. However, we shall be monitoring closely the progress of this weather system for sudden changes throughout the forecast period. It is also noted that the rapid intensification of this system can be attributed to the fact that it is lingering in the open warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. Stay tuned for more updates.

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