Tropical Storm SONGDA/Pre-CHEDENG continues to crawl towards the PAR as it moves WNW at 9 km/hr. along the western Pacific Ocean just northeast of Palau now with wind gusts of up to 100 kph. Earlier at 2pm today, the center of SONGDA was located at 150 km East of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). SONGDA shall continue to intensify and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (23 May) early morning and shall move north of Palau Island and into the Philippine Sea.
On 23 May at 2am, SONGDA/CHEDENG shall be about 365 km NNE of Koror, Palau. At 2pm of 23 May, it shall be 870 km East of Guiuan, Samar.
On 24 May at 2pm, SONGDA/CHEDENG is forecast to be 620 km ENE of Borongan, Samar.
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25 May(2pm) forecast shows SONGDA/CHEDENG to be about
500 km East of Sorsogon
530 km East of Legaspi City
475 km SE of Virac
495 km ESE of Rapu-Rapu Island
565 km ESE of Iriga City
580 km ESE of Naga City/CWC
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Long range forecast on 26 May(2pm) reveals SONGDA/CHEDENG to be
270 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
290 km ENE of Caramoan, Camarines Sur
355 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
365 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte
460 km ENE of Polilio Island
565 km ESE of Cabanatuan
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On 27 May(2pm), the system is estimated to be
185 km ENE of Ilagan, Isabela
175 km ESE of Sta. Ana, Cagayan
215 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
335 km SE of Basco, Batanes
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Starting today until 27 May, SONGDA/CHEDENG is expected to intensify further to TYPHOON Status with projected wind gusts of 260 km/hr. PAGASA shall name this system CHEDENG in their upcoming forecasts.
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FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS:
Based on this latest forecast, the system continues to show a more northerly turn in the later part of the extended forecast period but with a more close approach over Cagayan Province. Forecast models are in fair agreement in their respective datas with SONGDA/CHEDENG gliding to the northeast of Northern Visayas and the Bicol Region. Landfall in any part of the Philippines is still remote as of this forecast. If there is no change in the forecast, SONGDA/CHEDENG’s closest approach in Camarines Sur shall be about 290 km ENE of Caramoan or, (for Concerned Baao residents - 355 km ENE of Baao, Camarines Sur) on 26 May at 2pm. At any rate, we shall be monitoring closely the progress of this weather system for sudden changes throughout the forecast period. It is also noted that the rapid intensification of this system can be attributed to the fact that it is lingering in the open warm waters of the Pacific Ocean. The system is expected to enhance to southwest moonsoon once it hovers to the NE of Visayas and the Bicol region. Expect rains that could trigger flashfloods and winds sometime from 25 to 27 May. Stay tuned for more updates.
Next Public Advisory: 22 May between 10pm and 11pm
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