Friday, June 10, 2011

Tropical Storm DODONG (Sarika) Weather update as of 5:30am - 10 June (Final Advisory)

DODONG continues to accelerate away from the country and is now a few kilometers from crossing the northwestern Philippine Area of Responsibility. It has also intensified into a Tropical Storm and now bears the international name "SARIKA". A recent microwave scan revealed a formation of an eye mostly in the southern periphery of the system. The system's circulation is still poorly organized as of this time. Latest satellite imagery revealed that Luzon including its western sections can now be clearly seen indicating improving weather conditions in the area. As of 2am today, the center of TS Sarika/DODONG was estimated at 280 km West of Cabugao, Ilocos Sur with intensified wind gusts of up to 85 kph. It is forecast to move NNW at 22 kph towards Pratas Island in the South China Sea.

At 2pm today, 10 June, TS DODONG/Sarika shall be about 70 km SE of Pratas Island or 380 km ESE of Hongkong, China. Wind gusts shall intensify to 90 kph.



DODONG's circulation continues to cover a big portion of the South China Sea. Improving weather condition particularly in the western sections of Luzon shall be experienced as the system moves away into the northern part of the South China Sea. Moderate sea waves are expected along the western seaboards of Luzon as TS DODONG lingers out over the South China Sea. Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shall continue to bring scattered rains in the Philippines and all values shall return to NORMAL.

TS SARIKA/DODONG shall continue moving NNW and intensify slowly due to favorable sea surface temperature. It shall be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility few hours from now this morning, 10 June. It shall, then, threaten Pratas Island and shall cut through it sometime this late afternoon or early evening tonight and shall sharply turn North to NNE moving inland into Southeastern China. Expect bad weather (of tropical storm strength) in Pratas beginning this afternoon. SARIKA is expected to intensify a bit prior to landfall in southeastern China. Forecast models indicate a landfall near the coastal areas of Shantou, Chao'an and Chenghai in eastern Guandong, China in the morning of 11 June. These areas shall also experience deteriorating weather conditions tomorrow. Rapid dissipation of the system is expected immediately after landfall.

Additional Note: 2 Forecast Models (WBAR and GFDN) track the system more to the west closer to Hongkong. Nevertheless, majority of the numerical guidance favor a poleward and eventually a recurvature to the northeast towards eastern Guandong and Fujian Provinces. Please be aware of these possibilities and take the necessary precautions if you are in South or Southeastern China.

This will be the FINAL Advisory on this Tropical Disturbance. A new advisory will be issued once a new tropical disturbance becomes a threat to our country. Mabalos po.


2-Day TROPICAL STORM Sarika(DODONG) Forecast Positions







SATELLITE IMAGE as of 10 June @ 3:32am

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