Friday, June 24, 2011

Tropical Storm FALCON/07W/Meari Weather Update as of 24 June @ 11:30pm Ph Time

Tropical Storm FALCON/07W/Meari continues to intensify as it accelerates NNW at 22 kph towards the east of Northern Taiwan in the vicinity Ishigaki City in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan...about to cross the northern Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It shall transition into an Extratropical storm system in 2 days time. At 9:32pm, 24 June, it is about 480 km ENE of Basco, Batanes or 30 km ESE of Ishigaki City and some 305 km ESE Taipei, Taiwan. FALCON has wind gusts of up to 130 kph.

Forecast is still consistent with previous prognosis with slight variance in the extended track. It shows the system moving NNW to Northward gliding to the east of Taiwan very close to Ishigaki City in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan before turning NNE and poleward towards the East China Sea. FALCON shall turn NNE to NE into Korea's West Sea before touching down near Seoul, South Korea.

At 8am tomorrow, 25 June, FALCON shall be 340 km ENE of Taipei...outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Wind gusts shall intensify to 140 kph.

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3-Day TROPICAL STORM FALCON/07W(Meari)
Forecast Positions & Strength


AREAS HAVING PUBLIC STORM SIGNAL WARNING

SIGNAL NO. 4
(above 185 kph winds)
SIGNAL NO. 3
(100 to 185 kph winds)
SIGNAL NO. 2
(60 - 100 kph winds)
SIGNAL NO. 1
(from 45 - 60 kph winds)
NONE NONE NONE NONE

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND EFFECTS
FALCON/07W/Meari continues to accelerate NNW and is now lashing the Yaeyama and Southern Ryukyu Islands particularly Ishigaki City. Its southern rainbands has left Extreme Northern Luzon. The Philippines is now under the Southwest Moonsoon spell. Severe massive flooding in MARIKINA is now being experienced! Several dams in the area are now over flowing.

FALCON is still headed for Korea. It shall continue moving Northward towards Yaeyama and Southern Ryukyu Islands just east of Northern Taiwan tonight passing between Tarama Jima & Ishigako-shima Island.

In the afternoon of 25 June, FALCON shall turn NNE to Northward towards the East China Sea. It shall pass to the east of Shanghai in Eastern China. Extratropical transition shall commence while approaching Korea's West Sea. By 26 June, FALCON shall move NE approaching to the west of Cheju Do Island before veering towards Korea's West Sea. It shall glide to the western coast of South Korea passing to the west of Mokpo and Gwangju. On the night 26 June, FALCON shall make landfall over North Hwanghae Province near Seoul, South Korea. The system shall move NE into North Korea via South Hamgy┼Ćng Province. FALCON shall pass to the southeast of Mt. Baitou Shan and shall cross border again into Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in Jilin Province, in Northeastern China by 27 June.

FALCON shall continue to enhance the Southwest Moonsoon. Expect rains throughout the Philippines. Beware of flashfloods and landslides that could be triggered by this disturbance. Strong far-fetched sea waves can also be expected along the northeastern coasts of Luzon, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Ryukyu Islands. Moderate to rough sea waves is also expected along the western coast of Luzon. All sea vessels must be alerted.

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UPDATED SATELLITE FIX BULLETIN


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The IMAGES below are always UPDATED:



♦♦♦ FORECAST MODELS FOCUS: FALCON/07W/MEARI ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST TRACKING MAP OF FALCON/07W/MEARI ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SATELLITE IMAGE ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC RAIN RATE ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SURFACE WIND ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST PHILIPPINE WATER WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION ♦♦♦

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♦♦♦ LATEST WESTERN PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ♦♦♦

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